Basic Information

Title: Market-driven transformation policy for mobility electrification: An agent-based modelling approach

Author(s): Pu Zhao, Shao-Chao Ma*, Haizhong An

Journal: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

Published: 2024.03

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2024.104148

Abstract

The unsustainable nature of electric vehicle (EV) purchase subsidies compels the automotive industry to seek more cost-effective policy tools to accelerate electrification, which warrants the examination of an emerging solution: the dual-credit policy to replace subsidies. The researchers in this study built an agent-based model with a credit trading mechanism for the passenger vehicle market to simulate bottom-up industry policy transformation in the medium to long term. The results indicate that the dual-credit policy favours the growth of battery electric vehicles while restraining the expansion of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). It accelerates electrification, with EV production surpassing that of ICEVs six years earlier than under subsidies. Additionally, the credit trading mechanism under the current conditions of the policy can remain effective for six years. If combined with credit supply regulatory measures, it can be extended by another two years. Notably, this policy suits markets with a mature electrification base.