Basic Information

Title: Impact of time-of-use tariff policies on electric vehicle charging behavior and power system operation in Beijing

Author(s): Fan Tong*#, Pengju Liu#, Hongyu Pu, Yu Liu, Qionghua Liao, Shao-Chao Ma, Bowen Yi, Wei Ma, Ying Fan

Journal: Energy Economics

Published: 2026.03

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109291

Abstract

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) creates both opportunities and challenges for urban power systems. This study evaluates EV charging impacts under time-of-use (TOU) pricing policies in the Beijing–Mengxi grid using an integrated framework that combines EV ownership forecasting, citywide charging simulation from real travel data, and an 8760-h mixed-integer programming model. Three EV adoption scenarios (baseline, accelerated, aggressive) and two TOU pricing policies (Policy A and Policy B) are examined with varying user response rates. By 2030, EV ownership in Beijing may reach 2.58 million units, equal to 14% of system load. Unmanaged charging could raise peak demand by 8.1% and widen peak-to-valley differences by 9.8%. TOU pricing mitigates these risks: Policy A reduces evening peaks, while Policy B shifts load to midday solar availability but may create secondary peaks at full response. Renewable penetration rises from 13.6% in 2018 to 46.1% in 2030, and TOU pricing lowers operating costs by 0.25–1.09 billion CNY in 2025 and up to 4.04 billion CNY in 2030. Coal plant start-up costs are significantly reduced, and loss-of-load costs in Beijing fall by 74.1% under Policy B. Emission outcomes are highly policy-sensitive. In 2025, Policy A delivers negligible reductions, while Policy B achieves102–400 tCO₂abatement. By 2030, Policy B consistently reduces emissions by over 544 tCO₂, demonstrating the increasing synergy between demand-side flexibility and renewable integration. TOU pricing thus plays a pivotal role in supporting EV growth, reducing costs, and advancing carbon targets.